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Even
with a significant reduction in fatalities among the security
forces and a minor dip in the fatalities among civilians, the
number of insurgency related incidents in 2005, indicate that
India's northeast is yet to gain control over the problem that
has affected it since the early 1950s. However, 1332 insurgency
related incidents in 2005, comparable to the 1335 incidents that
occurred four years back in 2001, fail to reflect the dramatic
recoveries that individual states have made over the years in
their fight against terror.
Tripura
was accorded the most violent state status by the National
Crimes Records Bureau in 2003. However, it recorded only 60
fatalities in 2005. Compared to 2003, when 207 civilians were
killed in insurgency related violence, only 28 civilian deaths
were recorded in 2005. The incidents too registered a sharp
decline from 394 in 2003 and 212 in 2004 to 115 in 2005.
Effective police action leading to several setbacks among the
militant ranks is visibly paying off in the State, even though
the militants continue to exploit the advantages of a porous
border and enjoy the facilities provided by the Inter Services
Intelligence (ISI) and the Directorate General of Forces
Intelligence (DGFI) in Bangladesh. It's a pity that this
recovery from the quagmire of endemic violence has failed to
receive adequate attention from the national media.
With
majority of the active outfits having entered into ceasefire
agreements with the government, State of Assam, too, is on the
crossroads. A large part of the State's territory remains
violence free. The United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) has
formed a People's Consultative Group (PCG) to prepare grounds
for dialogue with the government. PCG has met the Union
Government officials and ministers on three occasions, the last
one being in June 2006. However, ULFA continues to indulge in
violent activities leading to the death of civilians and
security force personnel. There is an over whelming feeling that
the outfit wants to use the period of relative peace to
reorganize itself. The collusive nexus between the politicians
in the State and the militant outfit has remained an obstacle
for the neutralization of the outfit.
Manipur,
as per data on fatalities in 2005, remained the second most
violent state in the country, behind Jammu & Kashmir. As
many as 16 active outfits, with close to 10,000 cadres continue
to hold the entire State to ransom. Despite a high level
security force presence, State government's rule remains limited
to only few districts around the capital city of Imphal. The
State's problems are further compounded with the 'greater
Nagaland' demand by the Naga outfit, the National Socialist
Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), which has significant
influence in the hill districts of the State. With none of the
major outfits demonstrating any inclination for dialogue with
the government and the latter failing to move beyond its usual
offers for peace and security force operations, Manipur is
destined to remain disturbed in the foreseeable future.
Eight
years back, in August 1997, the NSCN-IM and the Union government
entered into a ceasefire agreement that over the years led to
significant reduction in fatalities in the State. The Khaplang
faction of the NSCN, too, entered into a similar agreement in
2001. However, post- numerous rounds of dialogue, in India as
well as abroad, ongoing conflict dynamics underline the fact
such agreements have failed to bring peace to Nagaland. The
State continues to witness a high degree of internecine clash
between the terrorist factions. Ninety-nine deaths were reported
in the State in 2005, a minor increase over the 2004 figure of
97. Civil-society movement remains subverted and such
organizations appear to have become mere propagandists of the
militant outfits. In addition, the demand for the integration of
the Naga-inhabited areas in neighbouring states has created a
roadblock in the peace process. It is difficult to foresee that
Nagaland would be able to emulate the examples of Meghalaya and
Arunachal Pradesh, which have made a steady progress towards
peace.
Beyond
neutralizing the violent outfits and negotiating with the other
dissenting forces, for durable peace in the region, the
government will have to address issues like the external support
militancy especially from Bangladesh, border management,
surrender and rehabilitation policy and also bringing in
development to the area.
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